Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 21,048
2 New Jersey 20,093
3 Louisiana 18,611
4 Arizona 18,510
5 Rhode Island 16,718
6 Massachusetts 16,333
7 District of Columbia 15,693
8 Florida 14,702
9 Delaware 13,467
10 Connecticut 13,393
11 Mississippi 13,371
12 Maryland 12,610
13 Illinois 12,595
14 Alabama 12,458
15 South Carolina 12,446
16 Iowa 11,858
17 Nebraska 11,465
18 Georgia 11,382
19 Texas 10,708
20 Nevada 10,396
21 Arkansas 10,310
22 Tennessee 10,224
23 Utah 9,952
24 California 9,231
25 North Carolina 8,940
26 Virginia 8,720
27 South Dakota 8,697
28 Indiana 8,231
29 Pennsylvania 8,058
30 Michigan 8,008
31 Minnesota 7,870
32 New Mexico 7,696
33 Wisconsin 7,447
34 Idaho 7,420
35 Kansas 7,301
36 Colorado 6,740
37 North Dakota 6,130
38 Washington 6,075
39 Ohio 6,039
40 Oklahoma 5,923
41 Missouri 5,311
42 Kentucky 4,838
43 New Hampshire 4,514
44 Wyoming 3,500
45 Puerto Rico 3,310
46 Oregon 3,204
47 Alaska 2,774
48 Maine 2,676
49 West Virginia 2,598
50 Vermont 2,123
51 Montana 2,119
52 Hawaii 911

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 517
2 Arizona 495
3 Louisiana 472
4 Texas 422
5 South Carolina 382
6 Alabama 376
7 Nevada 370
8 Mississippi 349
9 Idaho 322
10 Tennessee 303
11 Georgia 279
12 Arkansas 240
13 California 240
14 Oklahoma 227
15 North Carolina 191
16 Iowa 188
17 Utah 169
18 Wisconsin 157
19 Missouri 152
20 New Mexico 134
21 Nebraska 126
22 Washington 119
23 Maryland 116
24 Kansas 115
25 Kentucky 111
26 Montana 111
27 Virginia 108
28 Ohio 106
29 Indiana 103
30 North Dakota 98
31 Minnesota 93
32 Colorado 87
33 Illinois 87
34 Michigan 87
35 Alaska 85
36 Oregon 85
37 Delaware 80
38 District of Columbia 80
39 Pennsylvania 72
40 Rhode Island 70
41 Wyoming 70
42 South Dakota 64
43 West Virginia 63
44 Puerto Rico 58
45 New York 43
46 New Jersey 37
47 Massachusetts 36
48 Connecticut 22
49 New Hampshire 17
50 Hawaii 16
51 Vermont 12
52 Maine 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,763
2 New York 1,651
3 Connecticut 1,231
4 Massachusetts 1,215
5 Rhode Island 932
6 District of Columbia 813
7 Louisiana 749
8 Michigan 635
9 Illinois 588
10 Maryland 553
11 Pennsylvania 549
12 Delaware 535
13 Mississippi 439
14 Indiana 415
15 Arizona 344
16 Colorado 303
17 New Hampshire 290
18 Georgia 286
19 Minnesota 277
20 New Mexico 268
21 Ohio 265
22 Alabama 250
23 Iowa 247
24 Virginia 235
25 Florida 217
26 South Carolina 207
27 Nevada 203
28 Washington 195
29 California 189
30 Missouri 186
31 Nebraska 158
32 North Carolina 154
33 Kentucky 151
34 Wisconsin 144
35 South Dakota 129
36 Texas 128
37 North Dakota 122
38 Tennessee 115
39 Arkansas 112
40 Oklahoma 110
41 Kansas 106
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 84
44 Utah 72
45 Idaho 63
46 Oregon 59
47 West Virginia 55
48 Puerto Rico 53
49 Wyoming 41
50 Montana 32
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 14

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 11
2 Alabama 7
3 Florida 6
4 Mississippi 6
5 South Carolina 6
6 Louisiana 4
7 Texas 4
8 California 3
9 Nevada 3
10 New Jersey 3
11 District of Columbia 2
12 Georgia 2
13 Idaho 2
14 Iowa 2
15 Massachusetts 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 North Carolina 2
18 Pennsylvania 2
19 South Dakota 2
20 Tennessee 2
21 Washington 2
22 Arkansas 1
23 Colorado 1
24 Connecticut 1
25 Delaware 1
26 Illinois 1
27 Indiana 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Maryland 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 Ohio 1
34 Oklahoma 1
35 Rhode Island 1
36 Utah 1
37 Virginia 1
38 Wyoming 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Michigan 0
44 Montana 0
45 New Hampshire 0
46 New York 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 135,413 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,487 2 99
Lee Arkansas 96,421 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,079 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 88,940 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 23,164 126 95
Richland South Carolina 13,349 417 86
Orange California 8,787 780 75
York South Carolina 7,609 915 70
Pierce Washington 4,293 1545 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 245 673 78
Davidson Tennessee 230 708 77
Orange California 147 963 69
Pierce Washington 126 1061 66
York South Carolina 46 1691 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons